Why the UPND Cannot Afford to Underestimate Edgar Lungu’s Political Resurgence
By Daimone Siulapwa
Edgar Lungu’s re-emergence onto Zambia’s political stage is no small affair, and the UPND government would be making a grave mistake if they dismissed his return as inconsequential. Lungu isn’t just a former president attempting a comeback; he’s the face of a powerful, calculated machinery of influence, deeply connected within and beyond Zambia. His strategic savvy, coupled with the wealth and backing of influential allies, renders him a formidable force with the potential to destabilize Zambia’s democratic foundations.
Lungu’s comeback represents more than a personal political ambition it’s a rallying call for a faction that feels increasingly disillusioned with the UPND’s governance. Economic challenges facing Zambia today provide him with the perfect leverage to portray the UPND as a government that has “failed” to deliver on its promises. Ironically, these economic struggles stem largely from the debt and unsustainable spending his own administration fueled, yet he now seeks to exploit the very crisis he left behind as a platform to challenge the UPND. If the UPND overlooks this tactic, they risk missing the dangerous momentum Lungu is building to rewrite history, shift blame, and offer hollow promises of “solutions” that he himself once failed to deliver.
Adding to the threat, Lungu commands a vast financial war chest supported by business tycoons, international interests, and political elites who stand to gain substantially from his return to power. This formidable network is ready to funnel millions into an intricate campaign that could unleash an unprecedented propaganda assault against the UPND. The funding is intended to fuel a media blitz of misinformation, sensationalism, and manipulated public sentiment, all aimed at reshaping Lungu’s image from that of a controversial former leader to a supposed “savior” of Zambia. UPND must realize the power and influence this coalition represents, which could fracture Zambia’s social cohesion and push public sentiment against them if not countered effectively.
The UPND cannot afford to treat Lungu’s return as a routine political challenge. His re-emergence is backed by a well-oiled machine with far-reaching implications, not merely an opposition bid but a calculated campaign designed to undermine the current government. The UPND must take proactive steps to maintain transparency and engage directly with the Zambian populace. By taking a reactive stance, they risk falling into Lungu’s trap and losing valuable time as he gains momentum.
Moreover, Lungu’s influence extends beyond his potential candidacy; even if he is legally disqualified from running, his endorsement could lend significant weight to any candidate he supports, essentially creating a powerful proxy through whom he could indirectly control the direction of Zambia’s political landscape. This strategy would allow him to continue wielding his influence and resources, essentially setting the stage for a surrogate to take up his cause. The UPND must recognize this possibility and prepare not just for a direct confrontation with Lungu but also for the emergence of a potential stand-in candidate who might rally the opposition in his shadow.
Another critical aspect the UPND should carefully consider is the potential backlash of trying to block Lungu’s return through legal or administrative channels. Although it might seem like an appealing approach to disqualify him, doing so could backfire if it turns him into a martyr. Lungu has skillfully used the “victim” narrative in the past to drum up public sympathy, and any action perceived as oppression could become fodder for his campaign. The UPND needs to counter him openly and strategically, without employing measures that could inadvertently stoke his supporters’ sympathy.
Instead, the UPND should concentrate on educating the public about the corruption, impunity, and mismanagement that characterized Lungu’s previous administration. Zambia needs to remember the consequences of his governance—a regime that enriched a few at the expense of the many. UPND has the responsibility to shine a light on these past injustices, reminding the public of the accountability and transparency that has been reestablished under their governance and the dangers of allowing a return to the past.
In confronting Lungu’s influence, UPND cannot afford complacency. Lungu is not an ordinary opponent; he is a former head of state with significant resources, connections, and a keen willingness to capitalize on the economic difficulties Zambia currently faces. His political machinery, backed by international and local support, poses a direct threat to UPND’s standing and Zambia’s democratic values. The stakes are too high to ignore him, as his return could undo the progress made in recent years.
The task at hand for UPND goes beyond merely defending a government it’s about safeguarding Zambia’s democracy, stability, and the future of its citizens. The UPND must remain vigilant, assertive, and focused on reminding the Zambian people of the risks of returning to a regime that prioritized the wealth of a few over the welfare of the many.
Ultimately, Lungu’s return to the political sphere isn’t rooted in a desire to serve Zambia’s citizens. It is driven by a thirst for power, revenge, and a calculated attempt to reinstall the same network that once brought Zambia to the brink. If UPND fails to recognize and prepare for this threat, Zambia risks a return to one of the darkest chapters in its recent history.
Daimone Siulapwa is a seasoned political strategist and analyst with over 20 years of experience in political planning and execution